Democracy in the Western Hemisphere

Our Unfinished March to Victory in America (VAD) 3.1 David Santin Kilday DSK Copyright 2026 The Western Hemisphere, all of us together, are the Americas. In response to my question about the economies of the Americas, Meta AI answered: “The economies of the Americas stretch from the $32 trillion U.S. to island states under $1 billion. Here is the current size order, using IMF April 2025 / 2026 projections for nominal GDP in U.S. dollars. All figures are rounded. North America is still the weight of the hemisphere: 1. United States — about $32.3 trillion. By itself larger than all the rest of the Americas combined. 2. Brazil — about $2.63 trillion, now the second largest in the Americas. 3. Canada — about $2.50 trillion. 4. Mexico — about $2.12 trillion. The next tier — $200 billion to $700 billion — is all South America: 5. Argentina — $688 billion. 6. Colombia — $539 billion. 7. Chile — $407 billion. 8. Peru — $380 billion. Caribbean and Central America middle economies — $80 billion to $140 billion: 9. Ecuador — $138 billion. 10. Dominican Republic — $136 billion. 11. Guatemala — $128 billion. 12. Venezuela — $111 billion. 13. Costa Rica — $109 billion. 14. Uruguay — $96 billion. 15. Panama — $95 billion. 16. Bolivia — $80 billion. Smaller continental economies — $20 billion to $65 billion: Paraguay about $60 billion, Honduras $41 billion, El Salvador $39 billion, Haiti $39 billion, Nicaragua $24 billion, Trinidad and Tobago $26 billion, Jamaica $23 billion, Guyana $33 billion which is small now but doubling fast, Suriname $5.9 billion, Belize $3.4 billion. If you add the small island states, Bahamas is about $17 billion, Barbados $8.4 billion, Saint Lucia $2.7 billion, and so on down to Dominica at under $1 billion. Cuba is not published in the current IMF tables. What is the future of the Americas? Three forces are reshaping the hemisphere: nearshoring, energy and AI, and demographics. Who stands to gain: 1. Mexico, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic and Panama. Mexico has solidified its position as the U.S.'s largest trade partner, benefiting from nearshoring investments and USMCA-driven supply chain integration. Research shows Mexican manufacturing employment increased by over 5 percentage points in nearshoring-exposed regions. Costa Rica (semiconductors, medical devices), Panama (logistics), and the Dominican Republic (apparel, wires, medical) are getting the second wave because companies want lower risk than Asia but not all eggs in Mexico. 2. United States and Canada. The U.S. in 2026 is still described as exceptional, outperforming on AI and non-AI business equipment spending and productivity growth. Canada benefits as a secure energy, minerals and food supplier for that AI and re-industrialization build-out. 3. Brazil and Guyana. Brazil combines the largest economy and population in South America with the best logistics performance in the region. It is also a big energy and agriculture winner. Guyana, though tiny today, has the highest per-capita growth in the world from offshore oil — from $25 billion to over $33 billion in two years. 4. Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile. Stable, investment-grade, with surplus green electricity for data centers and copper/lithium for electrification. Who stands to lose or tread water: Venezuela, Haiti, Argentina, and some commodity-dependent small states. Venezuela still sits at about $108 billion despite huge reserves, held back by sanctions, underinvestment and population loss. Haiti around $39 billion faces chronic political and climate shocks. Argentina has size — $683 billion — but is volatile; it is Latin America's third largest economy on paper yet inflation, currency controls and debt restructuring cycles keep eroding real gains. Economies that did not invest in education, ports, or rule of law are not capturing nearshoring. Reports note the strong rebound in Mexican exports and FDI supports optimism, but lack of domestic investment prevents full advantage of the trend — that warning applies to much of Central America and the Andean region too. If full-scale onshoring limits itself to critical goods, countries without power reliability and customs efficiency will be left out. In simple terms: The U.S. stays on top by a huge margin, Brazil and Mexico trade places for #2 and #3 in the region depending on exchange rates, and the growth edge for the next ten years is a north-south corridor from Canada through Texas into Mexico, Costa Rica and Panama. The southern cone grows if it can turn minerals and clean power into industrial jobs; if not, it risks being just a raw-materials supplier while the factory jobs go to the north (Meta. AI).” We have learned about the economies of the Americas, now let's turn our attention to the American democratic project to expand the vote and make it more inclusive. When I asked Meta AI where is democracy strongest in the Americas, where is democracy weakest, what is the future of democracy bright, where does the democratic project projected to diminish, and where does dictatorship loom, Meta AI responded thus? “In the Americas the democratic project is highly uneven. Almost every country holds elections, but the quality of liberal democracy — rule of law, judicial independence, free press, checks on the executive — varies dramatically. Where democracy is strongest All major indices agree on the top tier in 2024-2025: 1. Uruguay — Consistently #1 in the region. Freedom House 98/100 Free, V-Dem Liberal Democracy 0.72, WJP Rule of Law strongest performer in Latin America. Strong parties, independent courts, free press. 2. Costa Rica, Chile, Barbados, Canada — The other stable liberal democracies. Freedom House lists Uruguay, Barbados and Chile as the top three aggregate scores in Latin America & Caribbean. V-Dem 2025 for 2024 ranks Costa Rica 0.68, Chile 0.66, Barbados 0.66 right behind Uruguay. 3. Canada is also top-tier: deliberative democracy index 0.655, ranked 4th in North America, and 98/100 on Freedom House historically. These are classified as liberal democracies — not just free elections but institutional checks. The US was in this group for decades but is now an outlier. V-Dem rated the US at 0.80+ until 2017, 0.75 in 2024, then 0.57 in 2025 — lowest since 1965 and a 24% one-year drop. EIU still classifies the US as a "flawed democracy," dropping from 28th to 34th in 2025. Where democracy is weakest The closed authoritarian core: • Venezuela — Ranked last regionally and globally in the 2025 WJP Rule of Law Index. Freedom House 16/100 Not Free. V-Dem classifies as electoral autocracy / closed autocracy. • Cuba — Freedom House 13-14/100, Closed. One-party closed autocracy. • Nicaragua — Civicus 5/100 Closed, Freedom House lowest in the hemisphere alongside Venezuela and Cuba. V-Dem: Ortega/Murillo regime described as intensified repression, eliminating checks. • Haiti — Not always in Latin America indices but Freedom House rates it Not Free alongside Cuba. No functioning elected government, state collapse. V-Dem summary: Countries with lowest democracy scores in the Americas are Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela. Where the future looks brighter V-Dem and EIU both note pockets of democratization after a decade of regional decline: • Dominican Republic, Brazil, Bolivia — Named by V-Dem as democratizing in 2024, and EIU notes that after a decade of consecutive score declines, Latin America & Caribbean improved in 2025, with Bolivia a standout performer halting democratic backsliding with a free and fair election in 2025. • Uruguay, Costa Rica, Chile — Remarkable stability in higher-ranked full democracies. No projected erosion. • In V-Dem's 2025 report, 64% of Latin America & Caribbean population still lives in electoral democracies, 4% in liberal democracies — the base is still electoral. Where the democratic project is projected to diminish Two different dynamics: 1. Elected incumbents weakening checks: • El Salvador — Bukele highly popular, but V-Dem and Freedom House flagged for greatest decline due to concentration of power, removal of term limits, security-state powers. • Mexico, Honduras, Peru, Guatemala — Cited in congressional compilation of Freedom House declines: Venezuela had third-greatest decline; Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala also in top decliners. Mexico's judicial reform and military role raise rule-of-law concerns. • United States — Both V-Dem and EIU flag it as the glaring exception where democracy deteriorated sharply in 2025. Whether historical checks and balances reassert will determine if this is cyclical or structural. 2. Structural stress: Fewer than one-third of 32 Latin American and Caribbean states improved their rule of law score in 2025. Where dictatorship looms or is entrenched • Entrenched: Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua are already classified as authoritarian / closed autocracies, not just at risk. • At risk of consolidation: ◦ Venezuela remains the model of entrenched electoral autocracy — no path to alternation without regime fracture. ◦ Nicaragua — family dictatorship, all opposition banned/exiled. ◦ Haiti — dictatorship by armed groups rather than ideology, vacuum risk. • Watchlist for potential authoritarian drift (not yet dictatorships): El Salvador, where emergency powers normalized; and to a lesser degree, countries where presidents have attacked courts/electoral institutes. Bottom line for the Americas: Strongest: Uruguay > Costa Rica > Chile/Barbados > Canada Weakest: Venezuela = Cuba = Nicaragua > Haiti Brightest near-term: Dominican Republic, Bolivia (2025 turnaround), Uruguay/Chile continuity Diminishing: US institutional scores, El Salvador, Mexico/Peru cluster Dictatorship: Already present in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua; looms as a risk where indefinite re-election and security-exception rule becomes permanent (Meta AI).” So, if democracy in the Americas is in flux, and under assault in the USA, we might ask Meta AI (keeping in mind our questions structure an AIs response), in the Americas, where is democracy most inclusive, where are the rights of minorities like, in some states, the rights of people of color and the rights of women (actually not a minority but only globally a 51% majority), strongest? “If you move from is there an election? to is access to that democracy equal? — what V-Dem calls egalitarian democracy: 1) rights protected equally, 2) resources distributed equally, 3) access to power equally distributed by gender, class and social group — the map shifts. Where democracy is most inclusive in the Americas The indices that measure equality specifically point to the same small group that tops overall democracy, plus a few others: 1. Uruguay, Costa Rica, Canada, Chile — Highest Egalitarian Component scores in V-Dem's 2025 release for 2024. These are the only countries in the region V-Dem still scores above 0.80 on liberal democracy and high on egalitarian protection. 2. Canada — In the Othering & Belonging Inclusiveness Index ranks near top for general inclusion, and V-Dem's exclusion-by-social-group index shows low exclusion. Legally: Charter protection, multiculturalism act, strong Indigenous self-government framework. 3. The Americas as a whole on gender — is actually the world leader for women in politics: • Americas average 35.4% women in lower/single houses, vs 27% world average • Regional average 35.8% women in parliament, with 18 countries having quota and/or parity laws • Latin America is the only emerging region described as aiming for "parity democracy" Leaders within that: • Mexico — Outstanding performance in women's representation in parliamentary and ministerial positions. 50% parity law since 2019, now one of few countries with gender parity in both chambers. • Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba, Argentina, Costa Rica — All over 45% women in parliament due to parity laws. Bolivia and Costa Rica combine high representation with high liberal democracy scores; Nicaragua and Cuba have high numbers but low liberal democracy. Where rights of minorities and women are strongest in law and representation Women (51% majority): Strongest formal protections cluster in: • Mexico, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Argentina — constitutional parity, national laws on femicide, and state-funded gender violence systems • Canada, Uruguay, Chile — high scores on Women Peace and Security Index, plus legal abortion, property and employment parity The region as a whole has developed what UN Women calls "a solid framework of laws and public policies aimed at ensuring full and effective exercise of women's political rights". The gap is implementation: women remain underrepresented in local power — only 15.5% of mayoralties and 24.9% of local seats on average. People of color / Ethno-racial minorities: • Constitutional recognition is strongest in: Bolivia (plurinational state), Colombia (1991 constitution, affirmative action, Afro-Colombian collective land titles), Brazil (racial quotas in universities and public service since 2012, largest affirmative action system in Americas), Canada (Employment Equity Act, multiculturalism), United States (Civil Rights Act framework, though V-Dem notes exclusion by social group has been rising since 2016). V-Dem's exclusion measure captures whether individuals are denied access to services or participation based on identity — caste, ethnicity, language, race, region, religion, migration status. On that measure, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Canada show lowest exclusion; Venezuela, Haiti, Guatemala, and Nicaragua show highest. Where inclusiveness is weakest Same bottom as overall democracy, but for different reasons: • Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua — Low scores not because of lack of parity laws (Cuba and Nicaragua have high women-in-parliament numbers) but because equal protection of rights fails V-Dem's definition: "rights and freedoms protected equally across all social groups". Independent press, opposition parties, and civil society — including women's and minority groups independent of the state — are closed. • Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras — Formal equality exists but state capacity is low; Indigenous and Afro-descendant populations have weakest access to justice and political power, reflected in very low egalitarian scores. • United States — Paradox: among strongest legal protections for race, gender, religion in statute (Civil Rights Act, etc.) and ranked 1st of 152 for LGBTQ+ inclusion in one Inclusiveness sub-index, but ranked 85th for race, and V-Dem flags an increase in exclusion by social group and deliberative decline since 2017. In short: • Most inclusive institutions: Uruguay, Costa Rica, Canada, Chile • Most inclusive gender parity in law: Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina, Costa Rica • Most inclusive ethno-racial framework on paper: Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia, Canada • Least inclusive in practice: Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti — where the problem is not lack of quota laws but lack of contestation that would let any group exercise rights independently. The Americas leads the world on one specific measure — women in parliament at 35% vs Europe at 32% — but still lags on local power and on equal protection for Afro-descendant and Indigenous peoples, where legal recognition has outpaced access to power and resources (Meta AI).” You can see the democratic project (one person one vote versus republicanism, the notion that only property owners should be allowed to vote: republicanism's final goal) fluctuates in the Americas. There are liberal democracies and there are common dictatorships. Most states fluctuate between democratic and antidemocratic tendencies. Many countries in the Americas have established progressive policies like affirmative action and the proportional representation of minorities in industry, education, and politics. Where does America stand? The FBI right now will tell you the primary threat to American democracy is right wing domestic terrorism. Right wing militias-often hate-inflected like the Nazi murderers, the punkish and violent skinheads, and Jim Crow’s residuum the Klu Klux Klan–are the principal threat to our safety, welfare, and democratic values today. As I warned in my memoir, the fashion of perversion, hypocrisy, and cruelty took over the land guided by a perverted, vain, old man who liked to play an always-right God after years of unchecked power. This was followed by the man who would be king where flooding the field looks like a desperate, unchecked, emotional outflow. US policy is governed by someone with one cocktail too many. The rejection of fashionable sadism and sodomy, through legal means, will purify this state, this union, and this world. So we live on an apeshit world full of dumbfuck buttfuckers; it doesn't have to be that way. The poor white trash and the ancient regime are alike dumbfuck buttfuckers The poor white trash rape their own kids and the children of the ancient regime are taught to sodomize their servants “when they are bad.” Both poor white trash and the ancient regime share a common cretinism. The dum fuck, poor white trash are anti-intellectual and the dumbfuck ancient regime consider education beneath them. They both are made aware, when the paucity of their medium for illiterates becomes apparent to them, they lack the education in culture necessary to fully enjoy this world. The poor white trash and the ancient regime lead lives of unenviable vacuity, sadistic perversions, drunken riot, and animal rut. The extreme right wing today openly uses Nazi propaganda techniques that proved effective in the 1930s during the rise of fascism in Germany, Italy, and Japan. They create “Big Lies” about their political opponents and Libel, Slander, and Defame them instead of interacting with them in rational civil discourse, like academics do. This hyper-mediated nation long ago went to the dogs and its civil society, outside the academy, so much soundbite fluff and stuff, a circus of freaks and goons, run by politicos running on Argentine Nazi gold, our wreck of a union, stumbling through each four year cycle, as we struggle on towards the uniform stability of the total application Law, our future, business state.